Add to ORKGEstimates of petroleum and natural gas resources vary substantially, both over time and across estimation methods. Worse, no reliable method exists for evaluating the accuracy of the various methods for estimating resources. This paper develops a simulation model of an exhaustible resource to evaluate different resource estimation techniques. Protocols for the Hubbert life cycle and USGS geologic analogy methods are developed and applied to synthetic data generated by the model. It is shown that the Hubbert method can generate an accurate estimate as early as twenty years before the peak of global production, but the geologic analogy approach overshoots the true resource base over the life cycle of the resource. D-3432 "Oil is a finite...