MODELLING RISK IN ATC OPERATIONS WITH GROUND INTERVENTION

work aimed at creating models for estimating Collision Risk for ATC operations which can be used by the Federal Aviation Administration and ICAO to establish safe criteria for separations between aircraft. While these models have always presumed a form of ATC which uses Procedural Separation and a non-radar environment typical of Oceanic operations, this report focuses on developing models for more tactical operations where some form of surveillance allows ATC controllers to intervene when it is observed that two aircraft are actually going to pass too close to each other and are violating some form of Intervention Criterion. While this was not the original goal for the research, the work of the ICAO FANS Committee and the ICAO RGCSP (Review of the General Concept of Separation Panel) caused a need for timely work to define new models of risk with intervention present, and the definition of a framework for new research studies which could be undertaken by various ICAO states. As a result, this report was used as an Information Paper at the RGCSP Working Group A meeting i