Article Strategic Tax Planning for State Tax Amnesties: Evidence from Eligibility Period Restrictions

Tax amnesty programs have exploded in popularity among cash-strapped states since the beginning of the Great Recession. Though many scholars have been interested in the long-term tax compliance effects after amnesty programs, this article is the first to consider short-run compliance effects just prior to a known amnesty—a moral hazard effect leading to strategic delinquencies. Evidence of this is detected from year-over-year tax revenue change in quarters just prior to an amnesty program. Regression analysis on pre-amnesty periods for state tax amnesty programs between 1982 and 2011 indicates that states experience higher pre-amnesty revenues when recent delinquents are excluded from amnesty participation. The point estimates from ordinary least squares (OLS) indicated that about 4.3 t