PROBABILISTIC MODEL OF UNCERTAINTIES IN TWO-PHASE FLOW TROUGH POROUS MEDIA

Abstract. We present a probabilistic model of uncertainties for the two-phase flow through a porous medium. The uncertainty in the model comes from an incomplete knowl-edge of the saturation-dependent effective mobilities of the phases, which are consequently considered as random processes. The probability laws of these processes are derived follow-ing the maximum entropy principle. After discretization, the random effective mobilities can be sampled allowing for Monte-Carlo simulations of the random model and analysis of the resulting random flow.