Transition in Cuba?

Let us assume that both the United States ’ annexation of Cuba and a military invasion of the island by Cuban exiles can be discarded. In fact, the annexation of Cuba has been out of the U. S. government’s agenda since the 1930s. In turn, a repetition of an operation like the Bay of Pigs in 1961 seems nowadays unconceivable. Still, in 1996 the Helms-Burton Act stated that “the Cuban government has posed and continues to pose a national security threat to the United States, ” but in 1998 the U. S. Department of Defense concluded that, due to the weakening of the Cuban army and state following the dissolution of the Soviet Union, “Cuba does not pose a significant military threat to the United States.” The present involvement of the U.S. administration in the Middle East seems to make other military interventions abroad unfeasible in the short term. There may be only two basic alternatives for the near future of Cuba, which can be labeled “continuation ” and “transition. ” The possibility that the dictatorship continues after Fidel Castro relies upon the Revolutionary Armed Forces ’ strong control over not only the military apparatus, but also the police and security organization, and crucial sectors of the economy. This is certainly not the type of institutionalization that a stable dictatorship ma