Ageing and Pensions Model Jan-Maarten van Sonsbeek VU University Amsterdam,

ABSTRACT: This paper describes a newly extended version of the dynamic micro simulation model SADNAP (Social Affairs Department of the Netherlands Ageing and Pensions model). SADNAP is being developed for calculating the financial and economic implications of the ageing of the population and of the ageing-related policy measures that are being proposed to cope with ageing. The model uses administrative datasets of Dutch public pension payments and entitlements for both public and private pensions. SADNAP has already been in use since 2007 for forecasting the state pension expenditures and for analysing the budgetary effects of policy changes. The model has been extended in order to give a broader assessment of policy alternatives by providing insight into other important evaluation indicators like income redistribution and the retirement decision of workers. For the modelling of income redistribution a new micro data source with individual data on private pensions is combined with differentiation of mortality rates in order to gain a better insight in the income at the individual level within the population of pensioners. For the modelling of the retirement decision an option value model is developed in which key parameters vary at the individual level in order to benefit from the micro simulation approach. These extensions greatly enhance the performance of SADNAP. Besides the financial implications, additional insight can now be provided into the effects of policy measures on a set of key indicators. In this paper both extensions are described in detail and a complete baseline projection of all key indicators is discussed