DOMESTIC UNREST, FOREIGN TARGET, AND INTERSTATE CONFLICT

This dissertation asks and answers the question of when domestic unrest leads to interstate conflict. First, I present the diversionary target theory that argues that a political leader’s decision for military use of force is affected by foreign as well as domestic conditions. I expect that domestically-troubled states are more likely to use military force against some, not all, states because political leaders prefer targets which can produce their domestic audience’s fear and/or greed in order to enjoy “rally-round-the-flag ” effects. I suggest that the fear-producing targets are foreign states having rapidly rising power or having different identities; the greed-producing targets are foreign states occupying disputed territory or exercising regional/local hegemony despite declining power. In addition, I expect political leaders prefer fear-/greed-producing targets that possess similar powers because domestic audiences may see initiation of military conflicts against too-powerful states and too-weak states as too risky and unnecessary, respectively. Then, I conduct a quantitative test of the cases of states from 1920 to 2001. The result shows that the presences of the rising power, the territory target, and the hegemony target contribute to the correlation between domestic unrest and initiation of interstat