Social Determinants of Deforestation in Developing Countries: A Cross-National Study*

This study examines the social forces that drive deforestation. Neo-Malthusian, modernization, and dependency theories are applied in a cross-national comparison of 51 developing countries. Multiple regression techniques are applied to estimate the rate of deforestation using the level of urbanization, economic growth rate, population growth rate, level of sectoral inequality, rate of change in primary product exports, and rate of change in tertiary education. Results support modernization theory, indicating that the level of urbanization has a curvilinear effect on the rate of deforestation, that economic growth contributes to deforestation, and that sectoral inequality reduces the rate of deforestation. In support of neo-Malthusian theory, population growth results in higher rates of deforestation. Tertiary education has a mild negative effect on the rate of deforestation, whereas the effect of trade dependency is insignificant. Although deforestation is a phenomenon as old as agriculture, current concern over forest loss is justified by the sheer scale of modern-day destruction. According to estimates by the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) (1995), between 100,000 and 200,000 square kilometers of forest area are lost each year. A 1992 National Research Council (NRC) report estimates that deforestation in tropical moist forests alone is responsible for the extinction of 17,500 species per year, resulting in habitat destruction, ecosystem simplification, and climate change. Tropical deforestation also accounts for an estimated 22.9 % of global carbo