The Effects of Electoral Concerns on Presidential Foreign Policy: The Case of Ronald Reagan

Although previous scholarship indicates that foreign policy has only a minimal impact on voter behavior, contemporary research suggests voters do act upon their foreign policy preferences. Recognizing voters ’ policy concerns, political leaders have frequently modified their foreign policy positions to mitigate electoral vulnerability. Ronald Reagan’s policies offer an example of such a shift. Reagan maintained hawkish positions toward Central America and the Soviet Union for most of his first term but, sensing public concern over such policies, adopted more conciliatory foreign policy positions, especially towards the Soviet Union, to reduce potential vulnerabilities in preparation for his 1984 reelection campaign. Notably, Reagan did not return to more aggressive policies following his reelection. Reagan’s foreign policy shift demonstrates the impact that public opinion and domestic politics may have on foreign relations. Conventional wisdom suggests that foreign policy has minimal influence on voter behavior, but recent scholarship challenges this assumption by finding that voters may punish officials who pursue un-popular foreign policy initiatives. In response to the views of the electorate, presidents may alter their foreign policy positions with the hope of reducing the risk of electoral defeat. President Ronald Rea-gan’s shift from an aggressive, anti-communist stance to a more conciliatory foreign policy approac