Efficient Aggregation of Panel Qualitative Survey Data∗

Qualitative business survey data are used widely to provide indicators of eco-nomic activity ahead of the publication of official data. Traditional indicators ex-ploit only aggregate survey information, namely the proportions of respondents who report “up ” and “down”. This paper examines disaggregate or firm-level survey re-sponses. It considers how the responses of the individual firms should be quantified and combined if the aim is to produce an early indication of official output data. Having linked firms ’ categorical responses to official data using ordered discrete-choice models, the paper proposes a statistically efficient means of combining the disparate estimates of aggregate output growth which can be constructed from the responses of individual firms. An application to firm-level survey data from the Confederation of British Industry shows that the proposed indicator can provide early estimates of output growth more accurately than traditional indicators