Security's Technical Panel on Trends and Issues in Retirement Saving and on the Na- tional Academy of Social Insurance's Panel on the Privatization of Social Security; I am

UNDER CURRENT LEGISLATION, the U.S. social security system has a long-run financial problem. The intermediate (central) projection of the Office of the Actuary of the Social Security Administration (SSA) shows that the payroll tax would have to be increased by 2.23 percent immediately to restore actuarial balance to the Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance (OASDI) program for the seventy-five-year pro-jection period. As shown in figure 1 (which presents the high- and low-cost projections in addition to the intermediate), the long-run deficit is made up of an excess of revenues over costs, followed by the reverse. I Under current law, the excess of OASDI costs over revenues would be paid out of the interest earnings of the trust funds and then out of the trust funds themselves. If the intermediate projection is correct, the trust funds will reach zero in 2029 (see figures 2 and 3). At this date, the projected flow of revenue is roughly three-quarters of projected benefits. The commonly voiced fear that social security "will not be there for me " reflects a widespread lack of awareness that substantial I have learned a great deal from my colleagues on the Advisory Council on Socia