Demand models for US domestic air passenger markets. Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics

The airline industry in recent years has suffered from the adverse effects of top level planning decisions based upon inaccurate demand forecasts. The air carriers have recognized the immediate need to develop their forecasting abilities and have applied considerable talent-to this area. However, their forecasting methodologies still are far below the level of sophistication of their other planning tools. The purpose of this thesis is to develop a set of demand models which are sufficiently sensitive to measure the effects upon demand of policy decisions with respect to such variables as fare and technological and quality of service factors. A brief overview of transportation demand theory and a survey of recently published research in air passenger demand modeling are presented. Following these is a discussion of the economic nature of domestic air transportation passenger service indicating the demand and servic