ALTERNATIVE RISK FORMULATIONS IN AN ECONOMETRIC ACREAGE RESPONSE MODEL FOR NORTHWEST WINTER WHEAT

This study develops an econometric acreage response model for wheat in the Pacific Northwest (Oregon, Washington, and Idaho) and tests several alternative specifications of risk and their effects on wheat acreage response. Results indicate that the existence of a significant relationship between risk and wheat acreage response depends on the way risk is measured. In general, a three year moving standard deviation of gross income per acre divided by the expected price of wheat was found to be the best measure of risk, both in terms of significance of the estimated coefficients and in terms of explanatory power of the estimated regression equation