Stability analysis of mango export markets of India: Markov Chain approach*

Abstract: India is native to mango and is also the largest producer of mangoes with 44.14 per cent of the total world production. The export of fresh mangoes has increased from ̀ 35.2 crores in 1991-92 to ̀ 162 crores in 2010-11. The paper attempts to quantify the changing structure of Indian mango exports. Data for analysis was taken for a period of 10 years from 2001-02 to 2010-11. Compound growth rate (CGR) was used for analyzing the growth in mango production, area, yield, export quantity and export value over the years. The markov chain analysis was attempted through linear programming method to assess the transition probabilities for the major mango markets. The major Indian mango export markets were categorized as stable market (Bangladesh, U.K, U.A.E) and unstable markets (Nepal, Saudi Arabia) based on the magnitude of transition probabilities. The major export markets for Indian mangoes are Bangladesh (46.22 %), U.A.E (33.26 %), Nepal (6.06 %), Saudi Arabia (3.63 %) and UK (3.06 %). The increasing share of other countries clearly shows the need to explore and exploit the market potential of other countries. Efforts are also needed to improve the efficiency of production and quality in order to stabilize the markets and also to make the product acceptable and price competitive in other importing countries