TITLE Do Stop Outs Return? A Longitudinal Study of Re-enrollment, Attrition, and Graduation. AIR 1998 Annual Forum Paper.

This study examined graduation and attrition patterns of undergraduates who were enrolled in the fall semester but who did not return for the spring semester at a doctoral granting, metropolitan university. A total of 504 of the 1,262 students who enrolled in the fall 1992 semester but who did not return for the spring 1993 semester completed a questionnaire on persistence and attrition. Of the 504 stopouts, 482 were tracked using institutional enrollment files through the fall 1997 semester. As of the fall 1997 semester, 166 of the 482 stopouts were enrolled or had graduated from the institution, while 316 had not returned. It was found that 50 percent of the variance in freshmen persistence and attrition behavior among the stopouts was explained using a regression model containing 13 independent variables. It was also found that 16, 6, and 5 independent variables predicted 70 percent, 32 percent, and 24 percent, respectively, of the variance in persisting and nonreturning behavior among sophomores, juniors