2008), Interaction between the Himalaya and the flexed Indian Plate — spatial fluctuations in seismic hazard

Abstract: Between the tenth and early 16th centuries three megaquakes allowed most of the northern edge of the Indian plate to slip 20-24 m northward relative to the overlying Himalaya. Although the renewal time for earthquakes with this large amount of slip is less than 1300 years given a geodetic convergence rate of 16-20 mm/yr, recently developed scaling laws for the Himalaya suggest that the past 200 years of great earthquakes may be associated with slip of less than 10 m and renewal times of approximately 500 years. These same theoretical models show that the rupture lengths of the Himalaya’s Medieval earthquakes (300-600 km) are too short to permit 24 m of slip given the relationships demonstrated by recent events. There is thus reason to suppose that recent earthquakes may have responded to different elastic driving forces from those that drove the megaquakes of Medieval times. An alternative source of energy to drive Himalayan earthquakes exists in the form of the elastic and gravitational energy stored in flexure of the Indian plate. The flexure is manifest in the form of a 200-450 m high bulge in central India, which is sustained by the forces of collision and by the end-loading of the plate by the Himalaya and southern Tibet. These flexural stresses are responsible for earthquakes in the sub-continent. The abrupt release of stress associated with the northward translation of th