ANALYSIS OF CONFLICTS IN DYNAMICAL ENVIRON- MENTAL SYSTEMS VIA CATASTROPHE THEORY

This paper addresses it.:clf to long-term conflicting issues in environment;! 1 policy.analysis. After a brief discus ion of the "nev scarcity " and its jub~>equent potential perturbation:: of our economie system in the long run, attention will be paid to some elements of catastrophe theory which,may be helpful in gaining insignt into the future impacts of inertia and conflict:; in environmental management. We::t, a fairly üimple model for integrsting natural resources and production will be constructed so as to illustrate the usefulness of catastrophe theory in economic-energy-environmental systens. The paper will be concluded with a brief judgement of u:;ing catajtrophe notion:; i