The dynamic nature of homicide clearances: A multilevel model comparison of three time periods

Homicide clearance rates in the United States have been steadily declining from the 1960s through the 1990s. Our study asks: (1) Are the factors commonly identified in homicide clearance research as being related to clearances consistent across time? (2) Can these factors shed light on the decline in homicide clearance rates during the past three decades? (3) How are community area characteristics related to clearances across time? Using Chicago data from 1966 to 1995, we find that the factors vary across time and space in terms of statistical significance and magnitude of their rela-tionships. Specifically, the increasing significance of victim’s race and firearm usage may account for some of the decrease in homicide clearance rates. Community area characteristics enhance our understanding of homicide clearances, although to a lesser extent than the victim and situational characteristics of a homicide case