Add to ORKGWe propose a framework for forecasting and analyzing regional and international conflicts. It generates forecasts that (1) are accurate but account for uncertainty, (2) are produced in (near) real time, (3) capture actors ’ simultaneous behaviors, (4) incorporate prior beliefs, and (5) generate policy contingent forecasts. We combine the CAMEO event-coding framework with Markov-switching and Bayesian vector autoregression models to meet these goals. Our example produces a series of forecasts for material conflict between the Israelis and Palestinians for 2010. Our forecast is that the level of material conflict between these belligerents will increase in 2010, compared to 2009
There is a belief that war is too random and sporadic to ever really be predicted, I would like to b...
This article addresses the discrepancy between the explanation and the prediction of political viole...
While many studies have suggested or assumed that the periods preceding the onset of intra-state con...
Abstract. Developing political forecasting models not only increases the ability of political sci-en...
The ability to successfully forecast impending societal unrest, from riots and protests to assassina...
Developing political forecasting models not only increases the ability of political scientists to in...
Bayesian approaches to the study of politics are increasingly popular. But Bayesian approaches to mo...
Bayesian approaches to the study of politics are increasingly popular. But Bayesian approaches to mo...
Bayesian approaches to the study of politics are increasingly popular. But Bayesian approaches to mo...
In the last decade advances in statistics, computing power, and data collection has led to an increa...
Developing political forecasting models not only increases the ability of political scientists to in...
Being able to assess conflict risk at local level is crucial for preventing political violence or mi...
Trabajo presentado en el IBEI Research seminar organizado por Institut Barcelona d'Estudis Internaci...
Recent years have seen major political crises throughout the world, and foreign policy analysts near...
Recent years have seen major political crises throughout the world, and foreign policy analysts near...
There is a belief that war is too random and sporadic to ever really be predicted, I would like to b...
This article addresses the discrepancy between the explanation and the prediction of political viole...
While many studies have suggested or assumed that the periods preceding the onset of intra-state con...
Abstract. Developing political forecasting models not only increases the ability of political sci-en...
The ability to successfully forecast impending societal unrest, from riots and protests to assassina...
Developing political forecasting models not only increases the ability of political scientists to in...
Bayesian approaches to the study of politics are increasingly popular. But Bayesian approaches to mo...
Bayesian approaches to the study of politics are increasingly popular. But Bayesian approaches to mo...
Bayesian approaches to the study of politics are increasingly popular. But Bayesian approaches to mo...
In the last decade advances in statistics, computing power, and data collection has led to an increa...
Developing political forecasting models not only increases the ability of political scientists to in...
Being able to assess conflict risk at local level is crucial for preventing political violence or mi...
Trabajo presentado en el IBEI Research seminar organizado por Institut Barcelona d'Estudis Internaci...
Recent years have seen major political crises throughout the world, and foreign policy analysts near...
Recent years have seen major political crises throughout the world, and foreign policy analysts near...
There is a belief that war is too random and sporadic to ever really be predicted, I would like to b...
This article addresses the discrepancy between the explanation and the prediction of political viole...
While many studies have suggested or assumed that the periods preceding the onset of intra-state con...