RESEARCH ARTICLE A Clinical Index to Predict Progression from Mild Cognitive Impairment to Dementia Due to Alzheimer’s Disease

Background: Mild cognitive impairment is often a precursor to dementia due to Alzheimer’s disease, but many patients with mild cognitive impairment never develop dementia. New diagnostic criteria may lead to more patients receiving a diagnosis of mild cognitive impairment. Objective: To develop a prediction index for the 3-year risk of progression from mild cognitive impairment to dementia relying only on information that can be readily obtained in most clinical settings. Design and Participants: 382 participants diagnosed with amnestic mild cognitive impairment enrolled in the Alzheimer’s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI), a multi-site, longitudinal, observational study. Main Predictors Measures: Demographics, comorbid conditions, caregiver report of participant symptoms and function, and participant performance on individual items from basic neuropsychological scales. Main Outcome Measure: Progression to probable Alzheimer’s disease