RESEARCH ARTICLE la

During the last decade the prevalence of chronic kidney disease (CKD) has increased considerably and is estimated to range from about 10-15 % of the elderly population [1-5]. Only a portion of patients with early stage 3 CKD progress to stage 4 where the risk of cardiovascular dis-ease, end stage renal disease (ESRD), or death becomes substantially higher [6-12]. Identifying the subset of pa-tients who enter stage 3 and are most likely to progress to stage 4 CKD could both improve outcomes, by allowing more appropriate referrals for specialist care [13-16], as well as spare those unlikely to progress the adverse effects and costliness of an unnecessarily aggressive approach [17,18]. This issue is particularly important in the geriatric population in whom it is unclear whether a reduced esti-mated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) in the stage 3 * Correspondence