OPEN ORIGINAL ARTICLE Fracture risk prediction: importance of age, BMD and spine fracture status

Our purpose was to identify factors for a parsimonious fracture risk assessment model considering morphometric spine fracture status, femoral neck bone mineral density (BMD) and the World Health Organization (WHO) clinical risk factors. Using data from 2761 subjects from the Canadian Multicentre Osteoporosis Study (CaMos), a prospective, longitudinal cohort study of randomly selected community-dwelling men and women agedX50 years, we previously reported that a logistic regression model considering age, BMD and spine fracture status provided as much predictive information as a model considering these factors plus the remaining WHO clinical risk factors. The current analysis assesses morphometric vertebral fracture and/or nonvertebral fragility fracture at 5 years using data from an additional 1964CaMos subjects who have now completed 5 years of follow-up (total N 4725). Vertebral fractures were identified from lateral spine radiographs assessed using quantititative morphometry at baseline and end point. Nonvertebral fragility fractures were determined by questionnaire and confirmed using radiographs ormedical records