RESEARCH Open Access

Incremental validity of sense of coherence, neuroticism, extraversion, and general self-efficacy: longitudinal prediction of substance use frequency and mental health Dennis Grevenstein1*, Matthias Bluemke1 and Henrik Kroeninger-Jungaberle2 Background: Several studies have demonstrated the importance of sense of coherence (SOC), neuroticism (N), extraversion (E), and general self-efficacy (GSE) for health, yet the unique utility of these overlapping constructs remains uncertain. The present research aims at exploring incremental validity when predicting (1) substance use specifically and (2) mental health generally among adolescents. Methods: A prospective and longitudinal design was used to predict (1) initial substance use nine years into the future and (2) mental health one year and four years into the future. Participants were 318 adolescents (age 14 to 15 at the beginning of the study). Results: Structural equation modeling revealed (1) that SOC had long-term incremental validity over N, E, and GSE for tobacco use and alcohol use, whereas cannabis use was predicted by E and GSE; and (2) that long-term mental health after four years was only predicted by SOC. Conclusions: Two studies provide further evidence for the importance of considering salutogenic factors when forecasting mental health and health-related behavior beyond classical constructs such as N, E, and GSE. Differences in criterion validity reveal that SOC cannot be equated with reversed neuroticism