ORIGINAL RESEARCH ARTICLE The Predictive Value of Discrete Choice Experiments in Public Health: An Exploratory Application

The Author(s) 2015. This article is published with open access at Springerlink.com Objective The objective of this study was to assess the predictive value of a discrete choice experiment (DCE) in public health by comparing stated preferences to actual behavior. Methods 780 Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) patients received a questionnaire, containing a DCE with five attributes related to T2DM patients ’ willingness to participate in a combined lifestyle intervention. Panel mixed-multinomial-logit models were used to estimate the stated preferences based on 206 completed DCE ques-tionnaires. Actual participation status was retrieved for 54 respondents based on patients ’ medical records and a sec-ond questionnaire. Predicted and actual behavior data were compared at population level and at individual level. Results Based on the estimated utility function, 81.8 % of all answers that individual respondents provided on the choice tasks were predicted correctly. The actual partici-pation rate at the aggregated population level was minimally underestimated (70.1 vs. 75.9 %). Of all indi-vidual choices, 74.1 % were predicted correctly with a positive predictive value of 0.80 and a negative predictive value of 0.44. Conclusion Stated preferences derived from a DCE can adequately predict actual behavior in a public health setting. Keys Points for Decision Makers To date, very little is known about the extent to which estimated participation rates based on discrete choice experiment (DCE) results accurately predict behavior. Both at an aggregated population level and at an individual level, high correspondence rates between predicted and actual participation behavior were found. Additional studies investigating the predictive value of DCEs by comparing stated preferences and actual behavior are urgently needed.