Adipocytokines, Hepatic and Inflammatory Biomarkers and Incidence of Type 2 Diabetes. The CoLaus Study

Context: There is contradictory information regarding the prognostic importance of adipocytokines, hepatic and inflammatory biomarkers on the incidence of type 2 diabetes. The objective was to assess the prognostic relevance of adipocytokine and inflammatory markers (C-reactive protein – CRP; interleukin-1beta – IL-1b; interleukin-6 – IL-6; tumour necrosis factor-a – TNF-a; leptin and adiponectin) and gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase (cGT) on the incidence of type 2 diabetes. Methods: Prospective, population-based study including 3,842 non-diabetic participants (43.3 % men, age range 35 to 75 years), followed for an average of 5.5 years (2003–2008). The endpoint was the occurrence of type 2 diabetes. Results: 208 participants (5.4%, 66 women) developed type 2 diabetes during follow-up. On univariate analysis, participants who developed type 2 diabetes had significantly higher baseline levels of IL-6, CRP, leptin and cGT, and lower levels of adiponectin than participants who remained free of type 2 diabetes. After adjusting for a validated type 2 diabetes risk score, only the associations with adiponectin: Odds Ratio and (95 % confidence interval): 0.97 (0.64–1.47), 0.84 (0.55–1.30) and 0.64 (0.40–1.03) for the second, third and forth gender-specific quartiles respectively, remained significant (P-value for trend = 0.05). Adding each marker to a validated type 2 diabetes risk score (including age, family history of type 2 diabetes, height, waist circumference, resting heart rate, presence of hypertension, HDL cholesterol, triglycerides, fasting glucose an