Research Article Beta-Cell Age Calculator, a Translational Yardstick to Communicate Diabetes Risk with Patients: Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study

Copyright © 2013 Mohammadreza Bozorgmanesh et al. is is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. Aims. To provide a yardstick for physicians/patients to efficiently communicate/measure incident diabetes risk. Methods. We included data on 5,960 (3,438 women) diabetes-free adults, aged ≥20 years at baseline who either developed diabetes during two consecutive examinations or completed the followup. Age, systolic blood pressure, family history of diabetes, waist-to-height ratio (WHtR), triglyceride-to-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio (TG/HDLD-C), and fasting plasma glucose (FPG) were introduced into an accelerated failure time regression model. Results. Annual diabetes incidence rate was 0.85/1000-person (95% CIs 0.77–0.94). Point-score-system incorporated age (1 point for>65 years), family history of diabetes (4 points), systolic blood pressure (−1 to 3 points), WHtR (−4 to 6 points), TG/HDL-C (1 point for ≥1.5), and FPG (0 to 27 points). Harrell’s C statistic = 0.830 (95 % CIs 0.808–0.852) and Hosmer-Lemesho