Religion in Africa

Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) have attracted increasing attention from researchers in many fields. One area in which ANNs have featured prominently is in the forecasting of TCP/IP network traffic trends. Their ability to model almost any kind of function regardless of its degree of nonlinearity, positions them as good candidates for predicting self-similar time series such as TCP/IP traffic. Inspite of this, one of the most difficult and least understood tasks in the design of ANN models is the selection of the most appropriate size of the learning rate. Although some guidance in the form of heuristics is available for the choice of this parameter, none have been universally accepted. In this paper we empirically investigate various sizes of learning rates with the aim of determining the optimum learning rate size for generalization ability of an ANN trained on forecasting TCP/IP network traffic trends. MATLAB Version 7.4.0.287’s Neural Network toolbox version 5.0.2 (R2007a) was used for our experiments. We found from the simulation experiments that, generally small learning rates produced consistent and better results, whereas large learning rates appeared to cause oscillations and inconsistent results. Depending on the difficulty of the problem at hand, it is advisable to set the learning rate to 0.1 for the standard Backpropagation algorithm and to either 0.1 or 0.2 if used in conjunction with the momentum term of 0.5 or 0.6. We advise minimal use of the momentum term as it greatly interferes with the training process of ANNs. While experimental results cannot cover all practical situations, our results do help to explain common behavior which does not agree with some theoretical expectations