The gerrymanderers are coming! Legislative redistricting won’t affect competition or polarization much, no matter who does it

ABSTRACT Redistricting received substantial attention in the popular media in 2011, as states redrew state legislative and congressional district boundaries. Many reformers con-tinue to argue for a de-politicization of the redistricting process, claiming that partisan redistricting is responsible for declining electoral competition and increasing legislative polarization. Our analysis of evidence from state legislatures during the last decade sug-gests that the effects of partisan redistricting on competition and polarization are small, considerably more nuanced than reformers would suggest, and overwhelmed by other aspects of the political environment. Oneof themost important legacies of the 2010 elec-tion cycle will be its effect on legislative redistrict-ing. In many states, shifts in control of the statelegislature or the governor’s office have led tochanges in who draws the legislative maps for the next decade. How these maps are drawn could potentially swing partisan control of several state legislatures and could also affect control of theUSCongress. Indeed, a few state legislators redraw-ing a few lines couldmake all the difference in determiningwhich party controls the House of Representatives in the coming years. Manyof thearguments frompoliticalobservers,however, focu