Original Article Variation in Serum Creatinine Level Is Correlated to Risk of Type 2 Diabetes

Background: Skeletal muscle is well established as a major target organ of insulin action, and is associated with the pathogenesis of type 2 diabetes. Therefore, we attempted to determine whether a variation in serum creatinine is related to the development of type 2 diabetes and other risk factors for diabetes. Methods: A total of 2,676 nondiabetic subjects with stable and normal renal function (estimated glomerular filtration rate>60 mL/min/1.73 m2) were followed up for approximately 4.5 years. New onset diabetes was defined as fasting plasma glucose (FPG) ≥7.0 mmol/L, glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) ≥6.5%, or subjects taking antidiabetic agents. Variation of serum creatinine (ΔCre) was defined as a difference between follow-up and baseline creatinine. In subgroup analysis, body composition was examined by bioelectric impedance analysis method. Results: A total of 106 subjects were diagnosed with new-onset diabetes during the follow-up period. Baseline serum creatinine was not different between the new-onset diabetes and no diabetes groups. Negative ΔCre (ΔCre <0) showed an association with increased risk of type 2 diabetes after adjusting for age, sex, body mass index, systolic blood pressure, FPG, HbA1c, triglyceride, high density lipoprotein cholesterol, and γ-glutamyl transpeptidase (odds ratio, 1.885; 95 % confidence interval, 1.127 to 3.153). Serum creatinine level demonstrated positive correlation with muscle mass and negative correlation with percentage of body fat in body composition analysis. Conclusion: Serum creatinine reflected body muscle mass and the decrease of serum creatinine might be regarded as a risk factor for type 2 diabetes