Predicting U.S. Tuberculosis Case Counts through 2020

In 2010, foreign-born persons accounted for 60 % of all tuberculosis (TB) cases in the United States. Understanding which national groups make up the highest proportion of TB cases will assist TB control programs in concentrating limited resources where they can provide the greatest impact on preventing transmission of TB disease. The objective of our study was to predict through 2020 the numbers of U.S. TB cases among U.S.-born, foreign-born and foreign-born persons from selected countries of birth. TB case counts reported through the National Tuberculosis Surveillance System from 2000–2010 were log-transformed, and linear regression was performed to calculate predicted annual case counts and 95 % prediction intervals for 2011–2020. Data were analyzed in 2011 before 2011 case counts were known. Decreases were predicte