doi:10.1155/2012/302974 Clinical Study Over Ten-Year Kidney Graft Survival Determinants

Copyright © 2012 Anabela Malho Guedes et al. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. Kidney graft survival has been mainly evaluated using an up to 10-year threshold. Instead, in this study our aim was to evaluate predictive variables that impact long-term kidney graft survival (≥10 years). We enrolled 892 patients in our analysis: 638 patients with functioning graft at 10 years PT and 254 patients with graft failure at 10 years PT (considering patient death with a functioning graft<10 years PT as graft failure). Between groups comparisons were done usingMann-Whitney and chi-square test. To determine independent predictive variables for long-term graft survival a multivariate-adjusted logistic regression was performed. Significant predictors of long term graft survival were lower 12-month PT creatinine (OR = 0.26, P < 0.001), lower donor age (OR = 0.98, P = 0.004), shorter time on dialysis (OR = 0.93, P = 0.044), recipient positive CMV IgG (OR = 1.59, P = 0.040), absence of AR episodes (OR = 1.57, P = 0.047), 0 to 1 (versus 2) HLA-B mismatch (OR = 1.80, P = 0.004), and recipients male gender (OR = 1.84, P = 0.005). Our results show that an early KT, younger donor age, and an optimal first year graft function are of paramount importance for long-term graft survival. Measures that address these issues (careful donor selection, preemptive KT, and effective immunosuppressive protocols) are still warranted. 1