Simulated Estimates of Pre-Pregnancy and Gestational Diabetes Mellitus in the US: 1980 to 2008

Purpose: To simulate national estimates of prepregnancy and gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) in non-Hispanic white (NHW) and non-Hispanic black (NHB) women. Methods: Prepregnancy diabetes and GDM were estimated as a function of age, race/ethnicity, and body mass index (BMI) using South Carolina live singleton births from 2004–2008. Diabetes risk was applied to a simulated population. Age, natality and BMI were assigned to women according to race- and age-specific US Census, Natality and National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys (NHANES) data, respectively. Results: From 1980–2008, estimated GDM prevalence increased from 4.11 % to 6.80 % [2.68 % (95 % CI 2.58%–2.78%)] and from 3.96 % to 6.43 % [2.47 % (95 % CI 2.39%–2.55%)] in NHW and NHB women, respectively. In NHW women prepregnancy diabetes prevalence increased 0.90 % (95 % CI 0.85%–0.95%) from 0.95 % in 1980 to 1.85 % in 2008. In NHB women from 1980 through 2008 estimated prepregnancy diabetes prevalence increased 1.51 % (95 % CI 1.44%–1.57%), from 1.66 % to 3.16%. Conclusions: Racial disparities in diabetes prevalence during pregnancy appear to stem from a higher prevalence o