Upsala Journal of Medical Sciences. 2014; 119: 268–277 ORIGINAL ARTICLE Predicting return to work among sickness-certified patients in general practice: Properties of two assessment tools

Aim.The purpose was to analyse the properties of two models for the assessment of return to work after sickness certification, a manual one based on clinical judgement including non-measurable information (‘gut feeling’), and a computer-based one. Study population. All subjects aged 18 to 63 years, sickness-certified at a primary health care centre in Sweden during 8 months (n = 943), and followed up for 3 years. Methods. Baseline information included age, sex, occupational status, sickness certification diagnosis, full-time or part-time current sick-leave, and sick-leave days during the past year. Follow-up information included first and last day of each occurring sick spell. In the manual model all subjects were classified, based on baseline information and gut feeling, into a high-risk (n = 447) or a low-risk group (n = 496) regarding not returning to work when the present certificate expired. It was evaluated with a Cox’s analysis, including time and return to work as dependent variables and risk group assignment as the independent variable, while in the computer-based model the baseline variables were entered as independent variables. Results. Concordance between actual return to work and return to work predicted by the analysis model was 73%–76 % during the first 28–180 days in the manual model, and approximately 10 % units higher in the computer-based model. Based on the latter, three nomograms were constructed providing detailed information on the probability of return to work. Conclusion. The computer-based model had a higher precision and gave more detailed information than the manual model