RESEARCH ARTICLE Quantifying the Socio-Economic Benefits of Reducing Industrial Dietary Trans Fats: Modelling Study

Background Coronary Heart Disease (CHD) remains a leading cause of UK mortality, generating a large and unequal burden of disease. Dietary trans fatty acids (TFA) represent a powerful CHD risk factor, yet to be addressed in the UK (approximately 1 % daily energy) as successfully as in other nations. Potential outcomes of such measures, including effects upon health inequalities, have not been well quantified. We modelled the potential effects of specific reductions in TFA intake on CHDmortality, CHD related admissions, and effects upon socioeconomic inequalities. Methods & Results We extended the previously validated IMPACTsecmodel, to estimate the potential effects of reductions (0.5 % & 1 % reductions in daily energy) in TFA intake in England and Wales, stratified by age, sex and socioeconomic circumstances. We estimated reductions in expected CHD deaths in 2030 attributable to these two specific reductions. Output mea-sures were deaths prevented or postponed, life years gained and hospital admissions.