Under-reporting of Road Traffic Mortality in Developing Countries: Application of a Capture-recapture Statistical Model to Refine Mortality Estimates, PLOS One. 7(2

Road traffic injuries are a major cause of preventable death in sub-Saharan Africa. Accurate epidemiologic data are scarce and under-reporting from primary data sources is common. Our objectives were to estimate the incidence of road traffic deaths in Malawi using capture-recapture statistical analysis and determine what future efforts will best improve upon this estimate. Our capture-recapture model combined primary data from both police and hospital-based registries over a one year period (July 2008 to June 2009). The mortality incidences from the primary data sources were 0.075 and 0.051 deaths/ 1000 person-years, respectively. Using capture-recapture analysis, the combined incidence of road traffic deaths ranged 0.192–0.209 deaths/1000 person-years. Additionally, police data were more likely to include victims who were male, drivers or pedestrians, and victims from incidents with greater than one vehicle involved. We concluded that capture-recapture analysis is a good tool to estimate the incidence of road traffic deaths, and that capture-recapture analysis overcomes limitations of incomplete data sources. The World Health Organization estimated incidence of road traffic deaths for Malawi utilizing a binomial regression model and survey data and found a similar estimate despite strikingly different methods, suggesting both approaches are valid. Further research should seek to improve capture-recapture data through utilizatio