LIKELIHOOD OF TSUNAMIS AFFECTING THE COAST OF

Tsunami is a high-impact low-probability maritime hazard that poses a threat to the coastal communities worldwide. The coast of southeastern China is vulnerable to tsunamis generated by earthquakes in the northern part of the South China Sea. In this study, the likelihood of local and distant tsunamis affecting the coast of southeastern China is assessed taking into account historical records of tsunamigenic earthquakes, seismicity, and focal mechanism of earthquakes in the various potential source areas. The results show that the chance of tsunamis generated by earthquakes near the Pearl River Estuary is small. Coastal regions from Fujian to eastern Guangdong and around Hainan may be affected by local tsunamis with a return period of about 210 years. Strong earthquakes over the seas and near the coast west of Taiwan and Luzon and in the Luzon Strait may generate regional tsunamis to affect the coast of southeastern China. The return periods for tsunamis to be generated by earthquakes of magnitude exceeding 7.5 in the Taiwan and Luzon regions that may affect the coast of southeastern China are about 110 and 120 years respectively