Executing Entity: SouthSouthNorth Trust

Climate change projections have indicated that both the Mopani District, in Limpopo in the north east of South Africa, and the Namakwa District, in the Northern Cape in the north west of South Africa, will be subject to increasing temperatures and changing rainfall patterns. According to local scale analysis of historical trends and future projections, there is a distinct warming trend for both Mopani and Namakwa, which will be far more severe by 2050 if global mitigation efforts are unsuccessful. Rainfall changes are much less certain, with temporal and spatial variability. Yet in historical trends there are indications of an increase in the intensity of heavy rainfall events in both areas, evident through a decrease in the number of rain days coupled with an unchanged average annual rainfall. Warming, and the associated increase in the number of extremely warm days, is set to impact evaporation rates and water availability. This is a concern as water is already scarce in Namakwa and in parts of Mopani. Greater amplitude of dry and wet spells, along with increasing temperatures, will negatively impact already stressed communities in both areas – thus rendering them more vulnerable to the impacts of climate variability and change, more specifically droughts, seasonal shifts and storm-related disaster events. Climate-related risks are generally greater for disadvantaged, rural and poor communities because of limited adaptive capacity and greater sensitivity to climate-driven impacts. Both Mopani and Namakwa Districts are characterised by the prevalence of rural, poor communities vulnerable to the impacts of climate variability an