For Want of a Credible Voter Registry DO PROBLEMS IN VOTER REGISTRATION INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD OF ELECTORAL VIOLENCE?

In the wake of deadly 2007-2008 elections in Kenya, the topic of electoral violence is attracting increasing international attention. One study theorizes that norms of electoral integrity play a critical role in determining outbreaks of violence during the election cycle. Using statistical analysis of data based on international election observer reports, this paper acquires a greater understanding of which violations of electoral integrity, such as vote fraud or restrictions on media, are associated with increases in electoral violence. The preliminary findings indicate that the hypothesized variables of voter intimidation and vote fraud are associated with electoral violence, but more surprising is the link between electoral violence and problems with voter registration/lists. After examining the case of the 2003 Guatemala elections, the paper concludes by theorizing how and why voter registration/lists problems open themselves up to violence, which has implications for the role of good electoral governance and norms of electoral integrity in conflict prevention.1 The key components of a legitimate electoral process is one that is free and fair in both political and administrative terms, that is inclusive of all elements of society through a well-considered law of citizenship and of voter registration, and that offers meaningful choices to the population … Electoral processes that are fraught with fraud, mismanagement, and political influence, and which are accompanied by high levels of social violence, can be the stimulus for deeper, serious social conflict. (italics in original)