Why Theory Choosing is Better than Hypothesis Testing

Abstract Hypothesis testing is the standard approach used in scientific work, but it is the wrong methodology to use in choosing which theory most accurately de-scribes the data. This is because hypothesis testing is asymmetric and does not spec-ify the alternative hypothesis in sufficient detail. A more appropriate methodology is to engage in model choice where the contending theories are treated symmetri-cally. This chapter first explains the problems with hypothesis testing, then provides the methodology of theory choice, and finally provides examples where hypothesis testing leads to inappropriate conclusions