Assessment of the system degradation level using the Bayesian approach

This study presents the developed algorithm for assessment and updating estimates of the parameters in mathematical models of device or systems ageing process (that is characterized by increasing failure rate) with respect to prior information and obtained observations (failure data). The proposed algorithm is based on a modified application of the Bayesian approach (BA). In the paper some ways for the forecasting of residual lifetime with respect of allowed risk margins using obtained updated mathematical model of increasing failure rate are presented