SPECIES SENSITIVITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE KEJIMKUJIK NATIONAL PARK REGION

Scientists have now accepted that the effects of human induced climate change will be realized in the next century, and may have already begun. The main objective of this research was to identify which species in the Kejimkujik National Park region experts believe could be most sensitive to climate change. The climate change scenario utilized was for an average of 2°C warming and generally drier conditions. This thesis also provides some preliminary discussion of management strategies to mitigate the impacts of climate change on populations of these species and on natural communities generally. The thesis explores species sensitivity to climate change through an expert opinion survey. Opinions were gathered on which species might be sensitive (positively or negatively) to climate change. Suggestions for potential indicator species for monitoring ecosystem responses to climate change, and potential management strategies for mitigating the negative effects of climate change, were also collected. The general trend suggested by the experts is that climate change will influence the populations of most species. Red maple, poplar, grey squirrel and the brown headed cowbird were all species identified as having the potential to increase their populations under a warming scenario. Red spruce, striped maple, sugar maple, hemlock, beech, several disjunct coastal plain plants, and the american marten were identified as having a potential negative reaction to climate change. Interviewees often discussed sensitivity in terms of species groups. Exotic an