1 Resolving Civil Wars before they Start: The UN Security Council and Conflict Prevention in Self-Determination Disputes

Abstract: A large literature has demonstrated that international action can promote the resolution of civil wars. However, international actors do not wait until violence starts to seek to manage conflicts. We consider the ways in which the United Nations Security Council reduces the propensity for self-determination movements to escalate to civil war, through actions that directly pertain to the disputing actors or that indirectly shape actor incentives. We examine the relationship between the content of UNSC resolutions in all self-determination disputes from 1960 to 2005 and the onset of armed conflict in the disputes. We find that diplomatic actions that directly address disputes reduce the likelihood of armed conflict and that military force and sanctions have more indirect preventive effects. Over the last several decades, international actors, often working through international organizations such as the United Nations, have focused increasing attention on managing violent intrastate conflict. This trend accelerated after the end of the Cold War, as efforts at the United 1 Authors listed in alphabetical order, equal authorship is implied. The data collection for this project was funded through a grant from the Folke Bernadotte Academy. The authors would like to thank Andrea Ruggeri, Lee Seymour, Megan Shannon and Jacob Kathman for their feedback, as well as participants in workshops at the University o