IZA, Bonn CEPR London

This paper tests the hypothesis that a high exposure to infectious diseases increases the risk of civil conflicts. The analysis exploits data on the number of multi-host vector-transmitted pathogens ever diagnosed in a country. For their specific features, the presence of these pathogens in a country is closely related to geo-climatic conditions and exogenous to civil con-flict. We document that the disease environment in terms of pathogen exposure is a statistically robust and quantitatively relevant determinant of civil conflicts over the last half century. Ex-ploiting within-country variation over time, we find that the effect of pathogen exposure on the likelihood of civil conflict is substantially amplified by weather shocks such as droughts and heat waves. Further explorations provide evidence for the effect working through a health channel, and rule out alternative channels like income, population dynamics, or institutions. Extensive robustness checks provide further support for the effect of pathogen exposure on civil conflicts