Fair Weather Allies: Terrorism and the Allocation of United States Foreign Aid

While it is commonly assumed that the United States uses using foreign aid as an instrument to combat global terrorism, it is unclear whether it views terrorist threats to other countries, par-ticularly its allies, with urgency. We show that the relationship between transnational terrorism and foreign aid flows is strongly conditional on whether terrorist activity based in a potential recipient directly threatens the U.S. Using data on terrorist attacks and casualties in potential recipient countries, we demonstrate that terrorist activity based within a state’s borders that targets U.S. interests is a strong determinant of both whether that state receives any aid and also how much aid it receives. In contrast, the presence of terrorism targeted at non-U.S. in-terests, even if it targets formal allies of the U.S., is generally unrelated to U.S. aid allocation. These findings suggest that the U.S.’s use of foreign aid to fight terrorism and political violence is narrowly tailored to assist countries that directly threaten its own security, rather than those of other countries, even its allies. ∗We thank Deniz Aksoy, Peter Rosendorff, Randy Stone, and Joe Wright for helpful comments. All mistakes remain our own responsibility