Forecasting elections from voters' perceptions of candidates' ability to handle issues

Abstract: We used the index method to predict U.S. presidential election winners based on issues polls. Issues polls ask voters which candidate they expect to do a better job in dealing with the issues facing the country. A simple heuristic, which predicted that the candidate who is rated more favorably on a larger number of issues will win the popular vote, was correct for nine of the ten elections from 1972 to 2008. We then used simple linear regression to relate the incumbent’s relative ratings to the actual popular two-party vote-shares. The resulting model yielded out-of-sample forecasts that were as accurate as forecasts from the Iowa Electronic Markets and established econometric models. The model has implications for political decision-makers as it can help to decide which issues to focus on in campaigns