Minnesota Forest Ecosystem Vulnerability Assessment and Synthesis: A Report from the Northwoods Climate Change Response Framework Project

Manuscript received for publication September 2013 The forests in northern Minnesota will be affected directly and indirectly by a changing climate during the 21st century. This assessment evaluates the vulnerability of forest ecosystems in the Laurentian Mixed Forest Province of Minnesota under a range of future climates. We synthesized and summarized information on the contemporary landscape, provided information on past climate trends, and described a range of projected future climates. This information was used to parameterize and run multiple vegetation impact models, which provided a range of potential vegetative responses to climate. Finally, we brought these results before a multidisciplinary panel of scientists and land managers familiar with northern Minnesota forests to assess ecosystem vulnerability through a formal consensus-based expert elicitation process. The summary of the contemporary landscape identifies major forest trends and stressors currently threatening forests in the region. Observed trends in climate during the past century reveal that precipitation increased in the area, particularly in summer and fall, and that daily maximum temperatures increased, particularly in winter. Projected climate trends for the next 100 years using downscaled global climate model data indicate a potential increase in mea