The Exchange Rate Effect of

Carry trade arbitrage strategies typically involve multiple currencies. Limits to arbitrage in such a setting not only slow the adjustment to the fundamental equi-librium, but can also generate transitory over- or undershooting of each exchange rate in accordance with the marginal risk contribution of each speculative posi-tion to the overall arbitrage risk. The paper uses a natural experiment to identify a particular global arbitrage opportunity and shows that arbitrage risk hedging modifies the exchange rate dynamics in the predicted manner. New spectral methods are applied to obtain a more precise inference on the cross-sectional trading pattern of the arbitrageurs