Central Appalachians Forest Ecosystem Vulnerability Assessment and Synthesis:

Manuscript received for publication June 2014 Forest ecosystems across the Central Appalachians will be affected directly and indirectly by a changing climate over the 21st century. This assessment evaluates the vulnerability of nine forest ecosystems in the Central Appalachian Broadleaf Forest-Coniferous Forest-Meadow and Eastern Broadleaf Forest Provinces of Ohio, West Virginia, and Maryland for a range of future climates. We synthesized and summarized information on the contemporary landscape, provided information on past climate trends, and described a range of projected future climates. This information was used to parameterize and run multiple vegetation impact models, which provided a range of potential tree responses to climate. Finally, we brought these results before a multidisciplinary panel of scientists, land managers, and academics familiar with the forests of this region to assess ecosystem vulnerability through a formal consensus-based expert elicitation process. The summary of the contemporary landscape identifies major forest trends and stressors currently threatening forests in the region. Observed trends in climate over the past century reveal that average minimum temperatures have increased in the area, particularly in summe