Date: Feb-2014 Authors:

The regional Climate Change and Adaptation Initiative (CCAI) of the Mekong River Commission (MRC) addresses the shared adaptation challenges to climate change impacts of the Lower Mekong Basin (LMB). The study described in this report provides an overview of the expected changes in crop production and food demand and supply in the LMB. This explorative outlook uses existing data sets, and the established and well-tested AquaCrop model and Food Balances Sheets. Analyses were undertaken at the 15 BDP sub-area level. Results show that under climate change crop yields will decrease as a result of higher temperatures and changing rainfall patterns. For the dominant crop, rice, yields are projected to reduce by a few percentages for the near future (2026-2035) for most sub-areas. For some sub-areas yields will reduce more, especially under the RCP8.5 and the more distant future. Other crops included in the analysis (maize, cassava, sugarcane) will also experience decreasing yields for most sub-areas, but less pronounced than rice. Current and future food intake were analysed using Food Balance Sheets (FBS) for each of the 15 sub-areas. Under changes in climate and population, food security will decrease and will fall below the daily recommended intake levels. Especially for the component “fat