occupancy analysis.

Spatial coherence (synchrony) among subpopulations poses a danger to the metacommunity, as it increases the risk of regional extinction. When this effect is significant, the use of inference technique based on the stochastic patch occupancy model (SPOM) may be inadequate, since SPOMs assume that each habitat patch is either occupied or empty and neglect the intra-patch dynamics. Here we suggest a general classification of the dynamics that allows one to identify, in a model-independent way, the regimes where coherence effects are strong. We also present a new technique, based on patch occupancy (presence/absence) data, to identify the role of spatial coherence in the stabilization of a metapopulation and to give an early warning against the possibility of regional-scale extinction. When this scenario occurs a decrease in the movement of individuals (habitat fragmentation, reduced dispersal rates) has a positive effect on the sustainability of the spatially distributed population. The results of individual based simulations of a spatially structured population are analyzed with SPOM and the regime where the two-state approximation is fails is identified.